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Post-Brunch Intelligencer


Midmorning ramblings on the state of the species

Ki, and the Scientific Method

Posted by Nath at 9:08 AM
I recently attended a jujutsu seminar led by a senior instructor ("Shihan"); let's call him 'T'. I had a good time, and learned a lot; Shihan T is an excellent martial artist, and a very good teacher. However, on several occasions, I found my mind wandering over to the subject of science – how it's done, and what purpose it serves.

You see, Shihan T is one of those people who likes to explain things in terms of ki (also known as The Force) and meridians. As a geek (the science/maths kind, not the chicken-guillotine kind), I am neither willing nor able to accept explanations of that sort. And yet, there's no doubt that Shihan T knows his stuff. He was throwing us around the room like a giant bear throwing rag dolls (it's OK – it's a friendly sort of bear, and the rag dolls know how to breakfall). He could break down any of his techniques and explain them in his own terms. Even if his explanations had little or no scientific basis, you could test many of his statements on a human guinea pig; by and large, their reactions were consistent with his claims.

The way I see it, the purpose of science is to build models that let you make predictions about phenomena in a system (typically, the universe). Science never asks the question 'why', and only asks 'how' relative to the model you're working in. Newton observed that things falling towards the ground tend to accelerate at 9.8ish m/s2. Shihan T observed that if you point such-and-such joint towards such-and-such meridian, your guinea pig will begin to wriggle about on the mat and scream strange insults at your ancestors.

There's no straightforward method to decide how best to model a system. (This is analogous to the feature selection problem in machine learning.) Even if some characteristic of the system seems to be relevant, it might just be a random pattern that emerges in your observations ("training data"), or have some correlative (rather than causative) link with the phenomenon you are trying to predict. Thus, with a bad model, you could thus come up with a hypothesis that matches your training data perfectly, but does an awful job predicting new observations ("test data") that you make after you formulate your hypothesis.

It is possible (and, I think, very likely) that this is how Shihan T's explanations work: over the course of several hundred years, people observed many of the ways human beings can move (or be physically manipulated), and came up with a model that quite accurately matches their training data. People rarely discovered new ways to manipulate the human body, so there was no real test data to validate the hypothesis with. On the rare occasions that test data was found ("Hey, I didn't know the wrist bends that way!"), the models were simply revised – a meridian moved a couple of inches this way, a pressure point added over there. A scientist or machine learning expert might call this cheating, since a model derived in this manner will not perform well on new test data – but for the martial arts, there really isn't much more test data. People in the foreseeable future will have the same joints they have today.

This could also be why certain non-traditional medicine systems (or, rather, super-traditional medicine systems) work better than they might be expected to. Any system that's slightly more effective than random chance has a small chance of catching on.

I do think that the models currently in use in the scientific community are far more effective than ones used in the past. We've had far more training data to learn from, and far more test data to validate with. Most verifiable, falsifiable predictions that can be explained in terms of ki can also be explained in terms of anatomy and physics. "To project your energy," Shihan T told us while demonstrating a throw, "the first thing you have to do is look at your partner." And then he turned to do so. In doing so, he turned his head in the direction his torso was facing, and his spine straightened out; this gave him the structural alignment he needed to perform the technique. (Every try lifting dumbbells with a bent spine? Don't. It'll be hard, and you'll hurt yourself.)

My point isn't that 'ki' is legitimate science, or can explain things that legitimate science can't. My point is that even unscientific investigation can sometimes (through years of Darwinian trial and error) provide usable models. Of course – not all models are equal. Many are blatantly self contradictory, and many others simply don't make falsifiable statements. Ki escapes both these traps to some extent by being an extremely nebulous concept – it's hard to even make a clear assertion about it, let alone find two assertions that contradict each other. It means entirely different things to different people. Obi-Wan Kenobi described it as "an energy field created by all living things. It surrounds us, penetrates us, and binds the galaxy together." I've heard other people simply define it as 'structure'.

Comments:

Posted by Blogger Raindrop at 11 March, 2007 15:07:
Traditional medicine systems, as you point out, work very well.

Unsurprisingly, some of the most common medicines today, are derivatives of salicin, which was extracted from willow trees. Hippocrates wrote about its healing properties.

Modern medicine employs some very questionable statistical methods. You've probably seen this floating around.

Posted by Blogger Nath at 11 March, 2007 22:53:
Actually, I said they work 'better than expected', not 'very well'.

True, some mainstream medical research is based on bad statistics. This is true of any field of science. However, I still think that modern medicine is on the whole better understood and more predictable than the traditional sort.

Posted by Blogger unforgiven at 12 March, 2007 08:14:
Almost all science starts as an observational model and then translates into an analytical model. It's simply the next evolutionary step.

The problem is, when people get stuck on the observational step and refuse to move on and embrace the analytical as the better and natural successor.

There are reasons of course for this, analytical science in its infancy will be a lot less accurate, simply because its trying to predict based on data which is still not complete. This often makes people want to stick to their old, tried and tested ways.


In today's world though, when analytical science in so many disciplines has matured to the level that it's not only useful but infinitely more accurate (not necessarily in medicine but in a lot of other areas), there remains no excuse for someone to stick on to their old ways and refuse to try to evolve their own observational method.

What they don't realize is that their observational science, despite their archaic methods, is still extremely valuable since it holds data of hundreds, if not thousands of years of experimentation. If this were just to be merged with the analytical method (which primarily suffers from a lack of data), imagine what heights we could go to.


Of course, that would require vision, something not too much of a pre-requisite for becoming a jujutsu master, is it? :)

Posted by Blogger Revealed at 12 March, 2007 19:03:
That's why a lotta old wives' tales make sense. Or at least teach an useful dictum. If it works, it works, no? As long as it isn't detrimental to anyone I suppose there's no point attempting to fix it.

It's also a lot about the belief a person has in the power of the cure to bring relief. Hence the placebo effect. That's one of the reasons why a lot of home remedies work, I think.

Posted by Blogger Nath at 14 March, 2007 07:55:
unforgiven:
That's a reasonable way to put it.

Revealed:
That's why a lotta old wives' tales make sense. Or at least teach an useful dictum. If it works, it works, no? As long as it isn't detrimental to anyone I suppose there's no point attempting to fix it.

Well, I think that's debatable for two reasons:
- Old wives' tales are indeed harmful on occasion.
- Even if they weren't, I don't feel comfortable encouraging people believe things that are clearly false. There's no point forcing people to abandon their superstitions (even if there was a way to do that), but there's certainly something to be said for gentle persuasion.

Posted by Blogger Revealed at 19 March, 2007 18:53:
You'd be surprised at how many of those actually work :). Some of them of course make no sense whatsoever but quite a small proprotion are dwnright harmful. I think it does a pretty good job of weeding itself through the ages. And some are even considered pretty ok by modern medicine (leeching come to mind)

Posted by Blogger Nath at 19 March, 2007 19:21:
Some of them of course make no sense whatsoever but quite a small proprotion are dwnright harmful.

If you were only referring to direct physical harm, I would agree with you. There are two problems, though:
- First, I consider it undesirable in its own right to believe falsehoods.
- Second, more pragmatically, I know of people killed by 'harmless' treatments. They put so much faith in their delusions that they don't seek real treatment.

Posted by Blogger Revealed at 20 March, 2007 15:58:
Hey, sometimes falsehoods get you through some pretty tough times. But I know what you mean. Those cases are definitely tragic esp when it needn't have happened. I was speaking from a more broad based greatest good for the greatest number angle. I think working in the field I work in desensitizes me from disease in a truly alarming way. Food for thought!

Posted by Blogger Nath at 22 March, 2007 01:21:
I was speaking from a more broad based greatest good for the greatest number angle.

You do have a point, but I suppose it depends on your definition of 'good'. Personally, I think that happiness based on false assumptions is worse than despair based on the truth. I admit that this is a pretty subjective thing; many sane people think otherwise.

Posted by Blogger Revealed at 22 March, 2007 15:06:
Right :). This is the first time I've been flattered by suggestions of sanity :). I thank you muchly.

Posted by Blogger Anil P at 06 April, 2007 22:23:
You cannot build a model without starting off asking 'why'. Then you ask 'Ok, so if this is the effect, then what is the cause?'

Once you identify the cause, then you ask again, 'But then why does it produce this effect.' And lo, eventually you get to build the model. Then comes the 'how' though I must admit that the 'how' does feature even when you're still asking 'Why'.

And yes, there was a time I used to think that there is a science to everything, and that science can explain everything. Now I know neither is true. But then those used to be Physics days. Amen.

Posted by Blogger Nath at 06 April, 2007 22:57:
You cannot build a model without starting off asking 'why'. Then you ask 'Ok, so if this is the effect, then what is the cause?'

That isn't obvious to me. Even if you do manage to identify the cause of a phenomenon, that really seems to be answering 'how' in my mind, rather than 'why'. 'Why' seeks a reason; 'how' seeks a mechanism.

That said, I can see this turning into one of those endless semantic debates that doesn't really go anywhere interesting.

And yes, there was a time I used to think that there is a science to everything, and that science can explain everything. Now I know neither is true.

Science is just a methodology. Methodologies do not explain things. However, I have not yet come across a phenomenon that couldn't be modelled using scientific methods.




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